Best Case Ever
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.09
8.02 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.32%
EV $4.45 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
24.10%
90 openings, odds method
Variance
28.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 90 openings and 5.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 20,000 | $2,546 4,010 HUNT_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 6,667 | $679 1,069 HUNT_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 3,333 | $329 518 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $140 221 HUNT_COIN | 31.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $54.65 86.08 HUNT_COIN | 60.8% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× |
| Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 86 | 81.0 | 1.06× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 25 | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weaponMarius Tutunaru$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$5.098.02 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.09 | 87.32% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.1%covert 6.0%other 90.0%consumer 4.0%best hit —