Doppler 10%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$48.99
77.16 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $42.81 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.27%
23 openings, odds method
Variance
30.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 23 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $2,546 4,010 HUNT_COIN | 59.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $679 1,069 HUNT_COIN | 31.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,667 | $329 518 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $140 221 HUNT_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $54.65 86.08 HUNT_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 22 | 20.7 | 1.06× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 50 | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeKirua$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$6791,069 HUNT_COIN13.86x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weaponMacieja$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon$48.9977.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $48.99 | 87.38% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 3.1%covert 5.0%other 90.0%consumer 2.0%best hit $679 (13.86x)