Hustle House Cheapy
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.24
1.95 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.70%
EV $1.10 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
52.91%
595 openings, odds method
Variance
425.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 263
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 595 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 605 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 10,000 | $2,014 3,172 HUNT_COIN | 18.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,429 | $444 699 HUNT_COIN | 28.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 333 | $191 301 HUNT_COIN | 52.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 99.6% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 603 | 602.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.70%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.24 | 88.70% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.3%extraordinary 0.1%consumer 99.6%best hit $191 (154.4x)