Hustle House Luck
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.54
27.62 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.70%
EV $15.55 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
237.85%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
202.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $9,540 15,025 HUNT_COIN | 30.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 2,000 | $4,507 7,098 HUNT_COIN | 14.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $2,203 3,470 HUNT_COIN | 14.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 500 | $639 1,006 HUNT_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 50 | $250 394 HUNT_COIN | 32.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 97.6% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$17.5427.62 HUNT_COIN$250394 HUNT_COIN14.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.70%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $17.54 | 88.70% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%#ffd700 0.3%legendary 0.1%covert knife 2.0%gray 97.6%best hit —