10% Juicy

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$18.79

29.59 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.38%

EV $16.42 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

56.42%

256 openings, odds method

Variance

43.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 111

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

82 openings · below min

30 days

256 openings · below min

since tracking started

256 openings · below min

-0.5%112.3%225.0%

Small sample. 256 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	82	81.65%±142.5	—	odds
30d	256	56.42%±80.7	—	odds
All	256	56.42%±80.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 256 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$2,846 4,482 HUNT_COIN	26.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$764 1,203 HUNT_COIN	11.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 400	$463 729 HUNT_COIN	7.0%	1	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$377 594 HUNT_COIN	5.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$263 414 HUNT_COIN	8.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 133	$193 304 HUNT_COIN	8.8%	3	1.9	1.56×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$137 216 HUNT_COIN	8.4%	2	2.6	0.78×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$96.95 153 HUNT_COIN	11.8%	9	5.1	1.76×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$43.83 69.04 HUNT_COIN	8.0%	9	7.7	1.17×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$35.77 56.33 HUNT_COIN	4.0%	3	4.7	0.63×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	90.0%	$0.10 0.16 HUNT_COIN	0.6%	229	230.4	0.99×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$18.7929.59 HUNT_COIN$35.7756.33 HUNT_COIN1.90x3d

USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$18.7929.59 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.01x3d

USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLightTerracidre$18.7929.59 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.01x3d

USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$18.7929.59 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.01x3d

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$18.7929.59 HUNT_COIN$43.8369.04 HUNT_COIN2.33x3d

USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$18.7929.59 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.01x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$18.79	87.38%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.9%extraordinary 2.3%classified 0.3%Covert 0.8%#d32ee6 1.0%restricted 4.9%blueLight 90.0%best hit —