Perfect 50 50
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.96
7.81 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $4.33 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
51.90%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $101 158 HUNT_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $34.50 54.34 HUNT_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue | 1 in 20 | $19.91 31.36 HUNT_COIN | 23.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 15.0% | $10.43 16.42 HUNT_COIN | 36.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 29.5% | $4.76 7.5 HUNT_COIN | 32.4% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.56× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff | 50.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 12 | 9.0 | 1.33× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.96 | 87.39% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.3%covert 0.3%blue 5.0%Classified 15.0%restricted 29.5%#87c7ff 50.0%best hit —