10% Guranteed knife

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$19.95

31.42 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.38%

EV $17.43 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

10.26%

54 openings, odds method

Variance

18.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 67

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

54 openings · below min

30 days

54 openings · below min

since tracking started

54 openings · below min

-0.5%62.0%124.5%

Small sample. 54 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	54	10.26%±113.8	—	odds
30d	54	10.26%±113.8	—	odds
All	54	10.26%±113.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$971 1,529 HUNT_COIN	13.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$625 984 HUNT_COIN	17.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 133	$492 775 HUNT_COIN	21.2%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$382 601 HUNT_COIN	11.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$250 394 HUNT_COIN	7.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knifeknife · covert	1 in 67	$115 181 HUNT_COIN	9.9%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 17	$54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN	18.9%	2	3.2	0.62×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	90.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.1%	52	48.6	1.07×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.