GUARANTEED 10% Knife
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.64
13.61 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $7.55 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.42%
51 openings, odds method
Variance
14.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 51 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$8.6413.61 HUNT_COIN$69.44109 HUNT_COIN8.04x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$8.6413.61 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN6.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.64 | 87.37% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.2%Covert 0.1%covert knife 1.7%high 90.0%best hit —