NENI DROP 420
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$78.92
124 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $68.96 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
210.49%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
14.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $2,623 4,131 HUNT_COIN | 38.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,051 1,655 HUNT_COIN | 15.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 100 | $550 866 HUNT_COIN | 8.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $382 601 HUNT_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 17 | $362 571 HUNT_COIN | 31.5% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.38× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 90.0% | $1.28 2.01 HUNT_COIN | 1.7% | 22 | 25.2 | 0.87× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$550866 HUNT_COIN6.97x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$362571 HUNT_COIN4.59x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecAlfred$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$362571 HUNT_COIN4.59x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecAlfred$78.92124 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $78.92 | 87.37% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.0%covert 1.0%other 1.0%covert knife 1.0%classified 6.0%milspec 90.0%best hit $2,623 (33.24x)