Price
$39.12
61.62 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.66%
EV $34.69 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.41%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
16.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 48
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 400 | $2,250 3,544 HUNT_COIN | 16.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $1,264 1,991 HUNT_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 400 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 286 | $546 860 HUNT_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $445 701 HUNT_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $300 472 HUNT_COIN | 17.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 48 | $194 306 HUNT_COIN | 11.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 26 | $174 273 HUNT_COIN | 19.0% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.74× |
| Sticker | Fly Highsticker · #4b69ff | 90.0% | $0.10 0.15 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 42 | 43.2 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classifiedPeitschenMeister$39.1261.62 HUNT_COIN$174273 HUNT_COIN4.44x
Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classifiedKirua$39.1261.62 HUNT_COIN$174273 HUNT_COIN4.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $39.12 | 88.66% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.3%covert 3.3%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 0.3%mil spec 2.1%classified 3.8%#4b69ff 90.0%best hit —