Brandons 3%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.34
13.13 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.36%
EV $7.28 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
1.75%
15 openings, odds method
Variance
29.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 15 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 667 | $550 866 HUNT_COIN | 11.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 500 | $453 713 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 667 | $411 647 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $243 383 HUNT_COIN | 16.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $242 381 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $231 364 HUNT_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | iBUYPOWERsticker | 1 in 333 | $208 328 HUNT_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $128 202 HUNT_COIN | 17.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | Clown Wigsticker · #4b69ff | 97.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 1.9% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.36%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.34 | 87.36% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.5%restricted 0.4%covert 1.2%classified 1.0%#4b69ff 97.0%best hit —