10% Awp
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.56
21.35 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.96%
EV $11.79 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.88%
1,748 openings, odds method
Variance
18.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,748 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100,000 | $9,540 15,025 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 50,000 | $5,555 8,749 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33,333 | $2,594 4,086 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,333 | $866 1,365 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 163 | $300 472 HUNT_COIN | 15.6% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $136 214 HUNT_COIN | 8.6% | 6 | 13.1 | 0.46× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $135 213 HUNT_COIN | 8.6% | 18 | 13.1 | 1.37× |
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 80 | $128 202 HUNT_COIN | 13.6% | 24 | 21.9 | 1.10× |
| AWP | Crakow! (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 80 | $123 193 HUNT_COIN | 13.0% | 22 | 21.9 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 19 | $77.64 122 HUNT_COIN | 35.2% | 104 | 93.5 | 1.11× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 90.0% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 1,566 | 1573.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialHobbi3ten$13.5621.35 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.01x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialHulk$13.5621.35 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $13.56 | 86.96% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.5%classified 1.3%rare 1.3%industrial 90.0%best hit —