HustleHouse Wanted
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.45
14.88 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.34%
EV $8.25 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
373.63%
88 openings, odds method
Variance
98.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 88 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 10,000 | $7,153 11,265 HUNT_COIN | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,500 | $1,605 2,528 HUNT_COIN | 7.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 222 | $708 1,116 HUNT_COIN | 38.6% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $238 375 HUNT_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $136 214 HUNT_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $81.25 128 HUNT_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $47.98 75.57 HUNT_COIN | 5.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 1 in 67 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT_COIN | 6.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| Sticker | Apekssticker | 95.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 83 | 83.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$9.4514.88 HUNT_COIN$1,6052,528 HUNT_COIN169.9x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$9.4514.88 HUNT_COIN$7081,116 HUNT_COIN74.97x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$9.4514.88 HUNT_COIN$7081,116 HUNT_COIN74.97x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.34%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.45 | 87.34% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%covert 1.0%extraordinary 0.5%restricted 1.0%red 1.0%milspec 1.5%other 95.0%best hit $1,605 (169.9x)