pls open this v3
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$67.31
106 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $58.82 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.67%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$67.31106 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$67.31106 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$67.31106 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$67.31106 HUNT_COIN$229361 HUNT_COIN3.40x
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$67.31106 HUNT_COIN$15.8224.91 HUNT_COIN0.23x
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedKarl Ess$67.31106 HUNT_COIN$64.65102 HUNT_COIN0.96x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $67.31 | 87.38% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%epic 1.0%#ffd700 1.0%extraordinary 2.0%covert knife 3.0%Restricted 3.0%classified 8.0%mil spec 6.0%industrial 7.0%Consumer Grade 64.0%best hit —