20SIGA

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.43

13.28 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.41%

EV $7.37 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.11%

24 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

24 openings · below min

since tracking started

24 openings · below min

37.5%89.0%140.5%

Small sample. 24 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	24	89.11%±50.9	—	odds
30d	24	89.11%±50.9	—	odds
All	24	89.11%±50.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Gut Knifeknife · covert	1 in 10,000	$139 219 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$112 176 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,667	$86.53 136 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 50	$35.35 55.68 HUNT_COIN	9.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$32.43 51.08 HUNT_COIN	17.6%	0	1.0	—
MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$27.78 43.76 HUNT_COIN	11.3%	3	0.7	—
P2000 \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$22.36 35.22 HUNT_COIN	15.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$17.99 28.34 HUNT_COIN	12.2%	3	1.2	2.50×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$15.82 24.91 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	2	1.2	1.67×
Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$13.47 21.22 HUNT_COIN	9.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$8.05 12.68 HUNT_COIN	5.5%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$6.88 10.83 HUNT_COIN	5.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	30.0%	$0.32 0.51 HUNT_COIN	1.3%	6	7.2	0.83×
Nova \| Caged Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	30.0%	$0.15 0.24 HUNT_COIN	0.6%	9	7.2	1.25×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.4313.28 HUNT_COIN$17.9928.34 HUNT_COIN2.13x5d

MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$8.4313.28 HUNT_COIN$27.7843.76 HUNT_COIN3.30x5d

Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$8.4313.28 HUNT_COIN$0.150.24 HUNT_COIN0.02x5d

M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9$8.4313.28 HUNT_COIN$0.320.51 HUNT_COIN0.04x5d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.4313.28 HUNT_COIN$17.9928.34 HUNT_COIN2.13x5d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMrPotatoHeadTheOG$8.4313.28 HUNT_COIN$17.9928.34 HUNT_COIN2.13x5d

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$8.4313.28 HUNT_COIN$15.8224.91 HUNT_COIN1.88x5d

Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$8.4313.28 HUNT_COIN$0.150.24 HUNT_COIN0.02x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.41%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$8.43	87.41%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.0%covert knife 0.1%#eb4b4b 2.0%blue 3.0%industrial 40.0%restricted 5.0%mil spec 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%milspec 5.9%#5e98d9 30.0%best hit —