5profit

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.51

3.96 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.36%

EV $2.20 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

51.11%

397 openings, odds method

Variance

68.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

39 openings · below min

7 days

337 openings · below min

30 days

397 openings · below min

since tracking started

397 openings · below min

-0.5%143.3%287.0%

Small sample. 397 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	39	27.00%±259.3	—	odds
7d	337	58.07%±88.2	—	odds
30d	397	51.11%±81.3	—	odds
All	397	51.11%±81.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 397 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$285 448 HUNT_COIN	13.0%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker	1 in 1,000	$285 448 HUNT_COIN	13.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 1,000	$285 448 HUNT_COIN	13.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$238 375 HUNT_COIN	10.8%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$236 372 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$236 372 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$106 167 HUNT_COIN	4.8%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$86.92 137 HUNT_COIN	4.0%	1	0.4	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$46.95 73.94 HUNT_COIN	2.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$32.43 51.08 HUNT_COIN	1.5%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$8.70 13.71 HUNT_COIN	7.9%	7	7.9	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$8.67 13.66 HUNT_COIN	7.9%	14	7.9	1.76×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	95.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	374	377.1	0.99×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert$2.513.96 HUNT_COIN$236372 HUNT_COIN93.91x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeMarius Tutunaru$2.513.96 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Glock-18 | Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.513.96 HUNT_COIN$8.6713.66 HUNT_COIN3.45x1h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$2.513.96 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeMarius Tutunaru$2.513.96 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$2.513.96 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Glock-18 | Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.513.96 HUNT_COIN$8.6713.66 HUNT_COIN3.45x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.36%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$2.51	87.36%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.1%other 0.1%Covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%covert 0.3%covert knife 0.1%classified 0.1%restricted 0.1%industrial 2.0%mil spec 2.0%Consumer Grade 95.0%best hit $236 (93.91x)