flippper
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.03
0.05 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
83.85%
EV $0.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.44%
16.2K openings, odds method
Variance
30.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 111,111 | $33.89 53.38 HUNT_COIN | 1.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 10,989 | $7.47 11.77 HUNT_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 417 | $2.39 3.77 HUNT_COIN | 21.6% | 41 | 38.9 | 1.05× |
| Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec | 1 in 400 | $0.69 1.09 HUNT_COIN | 6.5% | 35 | 40.5 | 0.86× |
| USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight | 1 in 100 | $0.10 0.16 HUNT_COIN | 3.8% | 138 | 162.1 | 0.85× |
| Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 1 in 11 | $0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN | 17.2% | 1,499 | 1458.8 | 1.03× |
| Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 1 in 11 | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 9.1% | 1,530 | 1539.9 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 80.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 38.2% | 12,965 | 12967.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerCago$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.80x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerOstKroken46$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumersergej stokurev$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumersergej stokurev$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumersergej stokurev$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumersergej stokurev$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Commonsergej stokurev$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN1.60x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer.skins.army.#maldgg$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerIVaaaannn$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.03 | 83.85% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 0.0%Legendary 0.0%restricted 0.2%Mil Spec 0.3%blueLight 1.0%Common 9.0%consumer 89.5%best hit —