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A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.88
23.43 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.92%
EV $13.38 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.09%
70 openings, odds method
Variance
533.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 70 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo)sticker | 1 in 10,000 | $31.9K 50,312 HUNT_COIN | 23.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,111 | $3,305 5,206 HUNT_COIN | 22.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $1,111 1,750 HUNT_COIN | 33.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 200 | $550 866 HUNT_COIN | 20.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 70 | 69.3 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeMacieja$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$14.8823.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.88 | 89.92% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.5%covert 0.5%Consumer Grade 99.0%best hit —