z00t 5%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$86.45
136 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $77.73 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
41.23%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
51.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100,000 | $48.6K 76,561 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 11,111 | $17.1K 26,979 HUNT_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 1 in 526 | $10.1K 15,944 HUNT_COIN | 24.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $5,401 8,507 HUNT_COIN | 20.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $2,736 4,309 HUNT_COIN | 17.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 133 | $1,361 2,144 HUNT_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 80 | $625 984 HUNT_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $428 674 HUNT_COIN | 11.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.96× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $86.45 | 89.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.0%legendary 0.2%covert 2.1%covert knife 0.8%Consumer Grade 95.0%best hit —