15% Holo
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$63.47
99.97 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $55.46 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.58%
38 openings, odds method
Variance
32.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 102
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 38 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$63.4799.97 HUNT_COIN$1,2922,034 HUNT_COIN20.35x
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerHobbi3ten$63.4799.97 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerKirua$63.4799.97 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerHobbi3ten$63.4799.97 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $63.47 | 87.38% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.6%legendary 0.1%other 0.4%#ffd700 0.1%covert 5.3%Covert 2.5%#d32ce6 5.0%consumer 85.0%best hit $1,292 (20.35x)