Blue Wins

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.43

36.9 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.39%

EV $20.47 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.02%

31 openings, odds method

Variance

27.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 67

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

31 openings · below min

30 days

31 openings · below min

since tracking started

31 openings · below min

-0.5%130.0%260.5%

Small sample. 31 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	31	75.02%±185.0	—	odds
30d	31	75.02%±185.0	—	odds
All	31	75.02%±185.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 400	$2,014 3,172 HUNT_COIN	24.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$799 1,258 HUNT_COIN	19.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$444 699 HUNT_COIN	16.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 133	$191 301 HUNT_COIN	7.0%	1	0.2	—
Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Foil)sticker	1 in 40	$111 175 HUNT_COIN	13.6%	2	0.8	—
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 40	$70.83 112 HUNT_COIN	8.6%	0	0.8	—
Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$32.81 51.68 HUNT_COIN	8.0%	4	1.6	2.58×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$12.08 19.03 HUNT_COIN	2.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	83.8%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.1%	24	26.0	0.92×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.