5% African Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.69
19.98 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $11.09 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.76%
145 openings, odds method
Variance
145.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 84
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 145 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 145 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary | 1 in 10,000 | $13.5K 21,218 HUNT_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $957 1,507 HUNT_COIN | 21.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 108 | $581 915 HUNT_COIN | 48.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $13.06 20.57 HUNT_COIN | 17.7% | 17 | 21.8 | 0.78× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 83.8% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 126 | 121.5 | 1.04× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$12.6919.98 HUNT_COIN$9571,507 HUNT_COIN75.41x
★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert$12.6919.98 HUNT_COIN$581915 HUNT_COIN45.82x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$12.6919.98 HUNT_COIN$13.0620.57 HUNT_COIN1.03x
Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$12.6919.98 HUNT_COIN$13.0620.57 HUNT_COIN1.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.69 | 87.38% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.3%Covert 0.9%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%other 83.8%best hit $957 (75.41x)