IRBITskya

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.97

28.31 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.69%

EV $15.94 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

19.07%

47 openings, sample method

Variance

341.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 99

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

17 openings · below min

30 days

47 openings · below min

since tracking started

47 openings · below min

-0.5%16.0%32.5%

Small sample. 47 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	17	4.29%±8.28	—	sample
30d	47	19.07%±12.7	—	sample
All	47	19.07%±12.7	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo)sticker	1 in 10,000	$31.9K 50,312 HUNT_COIN	20.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 100	$926 1,458 HUNT_COIN	58.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$84.03 132 HUNT_COIN	5.3%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$44.44 70 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	1	0.5	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	17.0%	$12.91 20.34 HUNT_COIN	13.8%	9	8.0	1.13×
Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common	80.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.1%	37	37.6	0.98×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.