40%DDPAT
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.55
8.74 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.72%
EV $4.92 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.61%
28 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 28 openings and 5.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF | 10.0% | $19.03 29.98 HUNT_COIN | 38.7% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $17.40 27.41 HUNT_COIN | 35.3% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 10.0% | $8.06 12.7 HUNT_COIN | 16.4% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $4.50 7.09 HUNT_COIN | 9.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× |
| Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 30.0% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× |
| Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.31× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$5.558.74 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF$5.558.74 HUNT_COIN$19.0329.98 HUNT_COIN3.43x
Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF$5.558.74 HUNT_COIN$19.0329.98 HUNT_COIN3.43x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerTerracidre$5.558.74 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$5.558.74 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$5.558.74 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · RestrictedMrPotatoHeadTheOG$5.558.74 HUNT_COIN$8.0612.7 HUNT_COIN1.45x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.72%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.55 | 88.72% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#8847FF 10.0%blue 10.0%Restricted 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%Common 30.0%consumer 30.0%best hit —