Price
$4.83
7.6 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.30%
EV $4.21 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.89%
499 openings, odds method
Variance
43.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 71
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 499 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 2,000 | $1,048 1,651 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Immortal | 1 in 1,000 | $431 678 HUNT_COIN | 10.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 400 | $243 383 HUNT_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $103 162 HUNT_COIN | 24.4% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | fer (Foil)sticker | 1 in 14 | $20.29 31.95 HUNT_COIN | 33.7% | 36 | 34.9 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | Astralissticker | 1 in 63 | $11.94 18.81 HUNT_COIN | 4.5% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 452 | 449.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.83 | 87.30% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.1%Immortal 0.1%#ffd700 0.3%covert 1.0%other 98.6%best hit —