Hustle House Cracks

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$21.58

33.99 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.35%

EV $18.85 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

29.56%

238 openings, odds method

Variance

100.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 100

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

46 openings · below min

30 days

238 openings · below min

since tracking started

238 openings · below min

-0.5%153.0%306.5%

Small sample. 238 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	46	16.40%±289.5	—	odds
30d	238	29.56%±127.3	—	odds
All	238	29.56%±127.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 238 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$48.6K 76,561 HUNT_COIN	2.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$10.1K 15,944 HUNT_COIN	5.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 5,263	$3,681 5,797 HUNT_COIN	3.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 1,429	$2,250 3,544 HUNT_COIN	8.4%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$1,264 1,991 HUNT_COIN	10.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 400	$694 1,094 HUNT_COIN	9.2%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife	1 in 200	$550 866 HUNT_COIN	14.6%	1	1.2	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 133	$353 555 HUNT_COIN	14.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 80	$222 350 HUNT_COIN	14.7%	2	3.0	0.67×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$147 231 HUNT_COIN	15.5%	3	4.8	0.63×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	95.0%	$0.36 0.57 HUNT_COIN	1.8%	232	226.1	1.03×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife$21.5833.99 HUNT_COIN$550866 HUNT_COIN25.49x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff$21.5833.99 HUNT_COIN$0.360.57 HUNT_COIN0.02x1d

M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert$21.5833.99 HUNT_COIN$147231 HUNT_COIN6.79x1d

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffDiabloPhD$21.5833.99 HUNT_COIN$0.360.57 HUNT_COIN0.02x1d

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff$21.5833.99 HUNT_COIN$0.360.57 HUNT_COIN0.02x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$21.58	87.35%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%legendary 0.0%Covert 0.1%covert 3.4%epic 0.3%other 0.5%covert knife 0.8%#8847ff 95.0%best hit $550 (25.49x)