Hustle House Cracks 2% Cheaper
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.34
9.98 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.35%
EV $5.54 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.54%
205 openings, odds method
Variance
72.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 205 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 205 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT_COIN | 13.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $644 1,015 HUNT_COIN | 17.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 1 in 333 | $451 711 HUNT_COIN | 24.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 200 | $285 448 HUNT_COIN | 25.7% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.95× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 100 | $95.77 151 HUNT_COIN | 17.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Clicking Headssticker · Rare | 98.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 1.1% | 201 | 200.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.34 | 87.35% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%epic 0.3%Covert 1.5%Rare 98.0%best hit —