Cracks no hitter
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.80
4.41 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.45%
EV $2.45 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.45%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
5565.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 5,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100,000 | $48.6K 76,561 HUNT_COIN | 19.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 5,263 | $10.3K 16,163 HUNT_COIN | 79.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 100.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 30 | 30.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.45%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.80 | 87.45% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%contraband 0.0%consumer 100.0%best hit —