switch
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.51
11.83 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.41%
EV $6.57 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.70%
102 openings, odds method
Variance
75.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 102 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $655 1,032 HUNT_COIN | 99.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 33.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 42 | 33.7 | 1.25× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 33.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 27 | 33.7 | 0.80× |
| Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common | 33.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 32 | 33.7 | 0.95× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$7.5111.83 HUNT_COIN$6551,032 HUNT_COIN87.24x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$7.5111.83 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerCap18ara$7.5111.83 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$7.5111.83 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.41%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.51 | 87.41% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.0%consumer 66.0%Common 33.0%best hit $655 (87.24x)