0 25 % dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.75
2.76 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.23%
EV $1.53 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.46%
593 openings, odds method
Variance
580.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 593 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 608 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 10,000 | $2,623 4,131 HUNT_COIN | 17.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 5,000 | $1,778 2,800 HUNT_COIN | 23.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 5,000 | $971 1,529 HUNT_COIN | 12.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 1,000 | $472 743 HUNT_COIN | 30.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,000 | $232 366 HUNT_COIN | 15.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 99.8% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 606 | 606.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$1.752.76 HUNT_COIN$472743 HUNT_COIN269.1x
★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$1.752.76 HUNT_COIN$232366 HUNT_COIN132.6x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.23%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.75 | 87.23% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%legendary 0.0%covert knife 0.1%sunny 0.1%other 99.8%best hit $472 (269.1x)