5% AK Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$39.59
62.35 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $34.59 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.88%
166 openings, odds method
Variance
208.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 166 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 166 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $17.4K 27,343 HUNT_COIN | 50.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,840 4,473 HUNT_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $2,708 4,266 HUNT_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $416 656 HUNT_COIN | 6.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $326 514 HUNT_COIN | 4.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 200 | $208 328 HUNT_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| AK-47 | First Class (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 100 | $139 219 HUNT_COIN | 4.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $44.25 69.7 HUNT_COIN | 2.6% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× |
| AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon | 95.0% | $0.19 0.3 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 160 | 157.7 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · UncommonLEZAS$39.5962.35 HUNT_COIN$0.190.3 HUNT_COIN0.00x
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · UncommonPeitschenMeister$39.5962.35 HUNT_COIN$0.190.3 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $39.59 | 87.38% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 2.9%classified 0.5%Legendary 0.5%#8847ff 1.0%Uncommon 95.0%best hit $2,236 (56.48x)