The dream

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.39

0.61 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.79%

EV $0.34 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

3.28%

339 openings, odds method

Variance

65865.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200,000

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

100.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

31 openings · below min

30 days

339 openings · below min

since tracking started

339 openings · below min

-0.5%4518.8%9038.0%

Small sample. 339 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	31	3.28%±9034.3	—	odds
30d	339	3.28%±2732.0	—	odds
All	339	3.28%±2732.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 339 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000,000	$48.6K 76,561 HUNT_COIN	14.3%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo)sticker	1 in 1,000,000	$40.1K 63,193 HUNT_COIN	11.8%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo)sticker	1 in 1,000,000	$40.1K 63,193 HUNT_COIN	11.8%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo)sticker	1 in 1,000,000	$31.9K 50,312 HUNT_COIN	9.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo)sticker	1 in 1,000,000	$27.8K 43,749 HUNT_COIN	8.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000,000	$25K 39,374 HUNT_COIN	7.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000,000	$18.8K 29,640 HUNT_COIN	5.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000,000	$18.5K 29,166 HUNT_COIN	5.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000,000	$17.4K 27,343 HUNT_COIN	5.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000,000	$17.1K 26,979 HUNT_COIN	5.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000,000	$15K 23,625 HUNT_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$14.2K 22,288 HUNT_COIN	4.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$12.8K 20,125 HUNT_COIN	3.8%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	100.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	3.7%	339	339.0	1.00×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.