3% dream chase
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.95
20.39 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $11.31 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
37.81%
438 openings, odds method
Variance
113.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 400
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 438 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 438 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 2,000 | $4,721 7,435 HUNT_COIN | 20.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $2,708 4,266 HUNT_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 2,000 | $2,014 3,172 HUNT_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,000 | $971 1,529 HUNT_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $507 798 HUNT_COIN | 11.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 80 | $222 350 HUNT_COIN | 24.6% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| Sticker | Counter Logic Gaming (Foil)sticker | 1 in 80 | $111 175 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.10× |
| Sticker | Luck Skillsticker · 7 | 97.0% | $0.19 0.3 HUNT_COIN | 1.6% | 427 | 424.9 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.95 | 87.37% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed7 97.0%contraband 0.1%covert 1.6%Covert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%other 1.3%best hit $507 (39.15x)