EZ WAGER CASE
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.18
3.43 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.52%
EV $1.93 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
251.84%
209 openings, odds method
Variance
32.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 209 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 209 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $326 514 HUNT_COIN | 16.9% | 3 | 0.2 | — |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 111 | $70.97 112 HUNT_COIN | 33.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Tornado (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 1 in 20 | $6.41 10.09 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 6 | 10.5 | 0.57× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 25 | $5.63 8.87 HUNT_COIN | 11.7% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.84× |
| Sticker | In The Fire (Foil)sticker · exotic | 90.0% | $0.46 0.73 HUNT_COIN | 21.6% | 193 | 188.1 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.52%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.18 | 88.52% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%industrial 5.0%#d32ee6 4.0%exotic 90.0%best hit $326 (149.8x)