20% WAGER CASE
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.17
1.85 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $1.03 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.88%
576 openings, odds method
Variance
8.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 576 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $30.57 48.14 HUNT_COIN | 29.8% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 67 | $7.47 11.77 HUNT_COIN | 10.9% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.27× |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $4.76 7.5 HUNT_COIN | 23.2% | 35 | 28.8 | 1.22× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 1 in 20 | $3.77 5.94 HUNT_COIN | 18.4% | 34 | 28.8 | 1.18× |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $3.43 5.41 HUNT_COIN | 16.7% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× |
| Sticker | Virtus.prosticker | 82.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.0% | 466 | 475.2 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.17 | 87.40% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%Legendary 1.5%restricted 5.0%milspec 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%other 82.5%best hit —