10% HERO AK
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.78
20.13 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $11.17 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
38.15%
27 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 27 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $247 389 HUNT_COIN | 22.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $144 228 HUNT_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $86.92 137 HUNT_COIN | 23.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $41.28 65.01 HUNT_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil)sticker | 90.0% | $1.72 2.71 HUNT_COIN | 13.9% | 26 | 24.3 | 1.07× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.78 | 87.38% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%other 90.0%best hit —