Price
$13.78
21.71 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.35%
EV $12.04 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
24.13%
46 openings, odds method
Variance
80.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 167
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 46 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $3,264 5,141 HUNT_COIN | 27.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $957 1,507 HUNT_COIN | 39.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 71 | $71.61 113 HUNT_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN | 13.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $21.39 33.69 HUNT_COIN | 8.9% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.74× |
| Sticker | Hello MP9sticker · #4B69FF | 90.0% | $0.30 0.48 HUNT_COIN | 2.3% | 41 | 41.4 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · LegendaryKi-JoongSong$13.7821.71 HUNT_COIN$21.3933.69 HUNT_COIN1.55x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$13.7821.71 HUNT_COIN$21.3933.69 HUNT_COIN1.55x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $13.78 | 87.35% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.6%covert knife 1.4%Legendary 5.0%#4B69FF 90.0%best hit —