INSANE LUCK
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.76
4.34 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.08%
EV $2.43 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
318.92%
172 openings, odds method
Variance
795.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 172 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.08%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.76 | 88.08% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%other 0.0%Covert 0.0%classified 0.0%contraband 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%covert knife 0.0%restricted 0.0%Legendary 0.0%epic 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%consumer 99.8%best hit $1,509 (547.7x)