mesytes 10% dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.11
26.95 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $14.95 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
50.34%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
21.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 54
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffIndia4life4416$17.1126.95 HUNT_COIN$0.360.57 HUNT_COIN0.02x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$17.1126.95 HUNT_COIN$132208 HUNT_COIN7.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $17.11 | 87.38% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.4%extraordinary 2.4%classified 1.1%gold 0.1%other 1.0%restricted 2.0%blueLight 20.2%high 10.0%#8847ff 30.0%Rare 30.0%best hit —