20% EZ WAGER
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.45
3.86 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $2.14 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.37%
79 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 79 openings and 7.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $24.29 38.26 HUNT_COIN | 11.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $12.43 19.57 HUNT_COIN | 46.4% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.63× |
| Souvenir MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial | 1 in 25 | $12.20 19.22 HUNT_COIN | 22.8% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.27× |
| AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 22 | $8.33 13.12 HUNT_COIN | 17.5% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.13× |
| Sticker | gla1ve (Glitter)sticker | 82.5% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN | 2.0% | 66 | 65.2 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covertMarius Tutunaru$2.453.86 HUNT_COIN$24.2938.26 HUNT_COIN9.91x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.45 | 87.39% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%classified 8.0%Industrial 4.0%pink 4.5%other 82.5%best hit —