mesytes 1% OMG

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.55

16.61 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.35%

EV $9.21 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.21%

72 openings, odds method

Variance

79.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 278

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

72 openings · below min

since tracking started

72 openings · below min

-0.5%231.3%463.0%

Small sample. 72 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	24	106.22%±355.9	—	odds
30d	72	71.21%±205.5	—	odds
All	72	71.21%±205.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titansticker	1 in 10,000	$3,472 5,469 HUNT_COIN	3.8%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 5,000	$2,747 4,327 HUNT_COIN	6.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$1,715 2,702 HUNT_COIN	5.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,500	$1,361 2,144 HUNT_COIN	5.9%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,250 1,969 HUNT_COIN	6.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,667	$1,080 1,701 HUNT_COIN	7.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,051 1,655 HUNT_COIN	8.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$957 1,507 HUNT_COIN	8.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$903 1,422 HUNT_COIN	8.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$750 1,181 HUNT_COIN	8.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 100	$103 162 HUNT_COIN	11.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$89.47 141 HUNT_COIN	9.7%	1	0.7	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$88.90 140 HUNT_COIN	9.6%	5	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	33.5%	$0.25 0.4 HUNT_COIN	0.9%	20	24.1	0.83×
Sticker \| Clicking Headssticker · Rare	32.0%	$0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	22	23.0	0.95×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	31.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	24	22.3	1.08×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$10.5516.61 HUNT_COIN$88.90140 HUNT_COIN8.43x5d

P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.5516.61 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x5d

StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$10.5516.61 HUNT_COIN$0.250.4 HUNT_COIN0.02x5d

P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$10.5516.61 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x5d

StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$10.5516.61 HUNT_COIN$0.250.4 HUNT_COIN0.02x5d

P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerFAT SANTA$10.5516.61 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x5d

StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecDiabloPhD$10.5516.61 HUNT_COIN$0.250.4 HUNT_COIN0.02x5d

Sticker | Clicking Headssticker · Rare$10.5516.61 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.01x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$10.55	87.35%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%covert knife 0.2%classified 0.1%covert 2.2%#d32ce6 1.0%milspec 33.5%Rare 32.0%consumer 31.0%best hit —