cheapy
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.26
1.99 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.01%
EV $1.11 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.04%
26 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
58.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
42.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 26 openings and 15.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 29.0% | $1.91 3.01 HUNT_COIN | 49.8% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.66× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 29.0% | $1.28 2.01 HUNT_COIN | 33.3% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× |
| Sticker | BukAWPsticker · #4b69ff | 29.0% | $0.64 1.01 HUNT_COIN | 16.7% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.19× |
| G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 13.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.48× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$1.261.99 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN1.01x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$1.261.99 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.261.99 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN1.51x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.261.99 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN1.51x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecSewi #^$1.261.99 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN1.01x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$1.261.99 HUNT_COIN$1.282.01 HUNT_COIN1.01x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restrictedJakub Oplot$1.261.99 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN1.51x
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.261.99 HUNT_COIN$1.913.01 HUNT_COIN1.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.26 | 88.01% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 29.0%milspec 29.0%#4b69ff 29.0%Consumer Grade 13.0%best hit —