10% Profit 4 Sure
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.83
24.94 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $13.84 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
136.40%
102 openings, odds method
Variance
42.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 102 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $2,622 4,130 HUNT_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 667 | $1,264 1,991 HUNT_COIN | 13.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 250 | $777 1,224 HUNT_COIN | 22.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $451 711 HUNT_COIN | 32.6% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.94× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 71 | $188 295 HUNT_COIN | 19.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 33 | $7.58 11.94 HUNT_COIN | 1.6% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× |
| Sticker | Bish (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 1 in 25 | $3.66 5.77 HUNT_COIN | 1.1% | 9 | 4.1 | 2.21× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 84 | 91.8 | 0.92× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.83 | 87.40% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.6%epic 0.4%covert knife 1.0%exotic 3.0%Remarkable 4.0%other 90.0%best hit $777 (49.07x)