30% Gold

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$8.54

13.45 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.34%

EV $7.46 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

47.24%

24 openings, odds method

Variance

9.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

24 openings · below min

since tracking started

24 openings · below min

-0.5%85.5%171.5%

Small sample. 24 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	24	47.24%±123.5	—	odds
30d	24	47.24%±123.5	—	odds
All	24	47.24%±123.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$625 984 HUNT_COIN	8.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 250	$172 271 HUNT_COIN	9.2%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Flammable (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 67	$82.72 130 HUNT_COIN	16.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$54.65 86.08 HUNT_COIN	22.0%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$27.37 43.1 HUNT_COIN	18.3%	1	1.2	0.83×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	20.0%	$7.75 12.21 HUNT_COIN	20.8%	8	4.8	1.67×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	70.0%	$0.50 0.78 HUNT_COIN	4.6%	15	16.8	0.89×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.