mesytes 5% dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.18
22.34 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.34%
EV $12.39 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.35%
55 openings, odds method
Variance
21.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 46
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 55 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.34%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.18 | 87.34% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%Covert 2.0%covert 1.6%covert knife 0.5%mil spec 1.0%Mythical 34.8%#4B69FF 60.0%best hit —