Good Lucky 20%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.63
19.9 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $11.04 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.43%
334 openings, odds method
Variance
20.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 334 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000,000 | $48.6K 76,561 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 1,001 | $550 866 HUNT_COIN | 5.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 111 | $174 273 HUNT_COIN | 14.1% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.66× |
| Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $61.68 97.14 HUNT_COIN | 27.9% | 19 | 16.7 | 1.14× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 14.0% | $41.28 65.01 HUNT_COIN | 52.3% | 50 | 46.8 | 1.07× |
| Sticker | TV On Miragesticker · high | 80.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 259 | 267.2 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifeDiabloPhD$12.6319.9 HUNT_COIN$550866 HUNT_COIN43.54x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.63 | 87.40% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.9%other 0.1%restricted 5.0%covert 14.0%high 80.0%best hit $550 (43.54x)