5% RISKY DREAMS
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.71
2.69 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.57%
EV $1.50 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54.74%
985 openings, odds method
Variance
81.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 116
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 985 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.57%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.71 | 87.57% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%covert 0.5%covert knife 0.1%classified 0.1%exotic 2.1%other 50.1%Ancient 0.5%Rare 24.0%high 22.6%best hit —