2% EXTREME LOTTERY
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.64
2.59 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.35%
EV $1.44 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.70%
1,372 openings, odds method
Variance
425.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 625
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1,372 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,372 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $2,236 3,522 HUNT_COIN | 15.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 10,000 | $2,203 3,470 HUNT_COIN | 15.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 5,000 | $486 766 HUNT_COIN | 6.8% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 5,000 | $486 766 HUNT_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $211 332 HUNT_COIN | 14.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $74.51 117 HUNT_COIN | 25.9% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| Sticker | Lucky 13 (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 1 in 75 | $9.03 14.23 HUNT_COIN | 8.4% | 21 | 18.4 | 1.14× |
| Sticker | Fly Highsticker · #4b69ff | 98.0% | $0.10 0.15 HUNT_COIN | 6.5% | 1,341 | 1344.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$1.642.59 HUNT_COIN$486766 HUNT_COIN295.7x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$1.642.59 HUNT_COIN$486766 HUNT_COIN295.7x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.642.59 HUNT_COIN$211332 HUNT_COIN128.3x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertEyMingh$1.642.59 HUNT_COIN$211332 HUNT_COIN128.3x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.64 | 87.35% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%legendary 0.0%covert knife 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 0.5%Exotic 1.3%#4b69ff 98.0%best hit $486 (295.7x)