BEEFY 5% TOURNAMENT

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$31.83
50.14 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $27.82 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
112.36%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
61.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 185
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
12 openings · below min
30 days
36 openings · below min
since tracking started
36 openings · below min
-0.5%246.0%492.5%

Small sample. 36 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d1246.96%±444.9—odds
30d36112.36%±256.9—odds
All36112.36%±256.9—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo)sticker1 in 2,000$6,667 10,500 HUNT_COIN12.0%00.0—
Sticker | Happy (Gold)sticker1 in 10,000$6,483 10,210 HUNT_COIN2.3%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 10,000$6,415 10,103 HUNT_COIN2.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 10,000$6,389 10,062 HUNT_COIN2.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$6,250 9,844 HUNT_COIN2.2%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$2,875 4,528 HUNT_COIN5.2%00.0—
★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$2,846 4,482 HUNT_COIN5.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$2,840 4,473 HUNT_COIN5.1%00.0—
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$2,778 4,375 HUNT_COIN5.0%00.0—
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$2,778 4,375 HUNT_COIN5.0%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$816 1,285 HUNT_COIN2.9%00.0—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$811 1,277 HUNT_COIN2.9%00.0—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 1,000$806 1,269 HUNT_COIN2.9%00.0—
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$799 1,258 HUNT_COIN2.9%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 1,000$776 1,223 HUNT_COIN2.8%00.0—
AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 400$305 481 HUNT_COIN2.7%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 400$303 478 HUNT_COIN2.7%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 400$301 474 HUNT_COIN2.7%20.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 400$300 472 HUNT_COIN2.7%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 400$292 459 HUNT_COIN2.6%00.1—
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 200$150 236 HUNT_COIN2.7%10.2—
★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 200$148 233 HUNT_COIN2.7%00.2—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 200$147 231 HUNT_COIN2.6%10.2—
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200$146 230 HUNT_COIN2.6%00.2—
★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 200$142 224 HUNT_COIN2.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 200$134 211 HUNT_COIN2.4%00.2—
Sticker | Bish (Holo)sticker · Remarkable30.9%$3.66 5.77 HUNT_COIN4.1%611.10.54×
Sticker | Bash (Holo)sticker · remarkable32.0%$2.64 4.16 HUNT_COIN3.0%1411.51.22×
Sticker | Bosh (Holo)sticker · violet32.0%$2.50 3.94 HUNT_COIN2.9%1111.50.95×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | Bosh (Holo)sticker · violet$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.503.94 HUNT_COIN0.08x
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$150236 HUNT_COIN4.71x
Sticker | Bosh (Holo)sticker · violet$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.503.94 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Sticker | Bash (Holo)sticker · remarkable$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.644.16 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Sticker | Bash (Holo)sticker · remarkable$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.644.16 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Sticker | Bash (Holo)sticker · remarkableDiabloPhD$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.644.16 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Sticker | Bash (Holo)sticker · remarkable$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.644.16 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Sticker | Bosh (Holo)sticker · violet$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.503.94 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Sticker | Bash (Holo)sticker · remarkable$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.644.16 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Sticker | Bosh (Holo)sticker · violet$31.8350.14 HUNT_COIN$2.503.94 HUNT_COIN0.08x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$31.8387.38%29
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 0.1%knifes 0.0%legendary 0.3%covert 1.9%extraordinary 0.7%gold 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%covert knife 1.0%classified 1.0%Remarkable 30.9%remarkable 32.0%violet 32.0%best hit —