Gambles
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$37.24
58.65 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.68%
EV $33.02 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
174.51%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
17.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 286 | $1,542 2,428 HUNT_COIN | 16.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 286 | $1,509 2,377 HUNT_COIN | 16.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,417 2,231 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 11 | $193 304 HUNT_COIN | 52.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 90.0% | $0.83 1.3 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 27 | 27.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$37.2458.65 HUNT_COIN$1,5422,428 HUNT_COIN41.40x
Latest dropsnewest first
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violetDiabloPhD$37.2458.65 HUNT_COIN$0.831.3 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.68%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $37.24 | 88.68% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.7%classified 0.3%red 9.0%violet 90.0%best hit $1,542 (41.40x)